### When pigs flu, or pigs fly

Life burns a candle exponentially by 2t and it is the game of two exponential systems being played against each other. The flu is in an environment that is virtually homogeneous due to travel methods and number of people. I bet you could use Michaelis-Menten kinetics to model it, but it gives no answer to the problem, just a pretty graph to look at as it happens.

I am not sure and the data is not good, but it looks as if 't' in 2t of this disease is 8 hours. That seems awfully short to me. It seems that the virus must be communicable in a matter of hours, or more likely the transfer function is not binary, which is more reasonable. So if one person can transfer the condition to 100, then 't' could be days instead of hours.

Still in multiplicity, it may replicate in a millisecond. So in reality it is a 't' of 0.01 seconds. The delay is because each of those cannot find a suitable growth medium and also are delayed in their transport. I have never done the equations or studied somebody else's and I am making it up as I go along.

I suppose I could model this, but you could also just do "Big O" of the disease and that seems to be about 10t in days and so that would be 10 days to burn out. It is three days into this so, that means that it will be over in its first stage in 6 days. The thing that is certainly possible seems to be that once it is growing in a population of humans, it will continue to mutate in that environment. This can be bad or good as it can become less damaging or more damaging. The tendency in mutation is toward less damage for the same reason that extremely deadly diseases burn out quickly. If they kill the host, the host is not likely to further the V. So each mutation that becomes more deadly will stop itself. This is fairly consistent with history as these flus ramp up in deadliness and then back off, like a strange chaotic attractor.

These little buggers are wonderful true random number generators and they do exactly what protects somebody with open source from worst case behavior being pushed on a program, which is randomizing an algorithm so that the 'crack' and the selected algo must match, so at some point it becomes too time consuming to try and open that door.

I personally am not more or less worried, I see all things and while this is happening, California is still drifting, Yellowstone could go cataclysmic ( and certainly will some day), unnoticed asteroid hits Earth, Coronal Mass Ejection gets lucky, good match on a Γ ray burst to the Earth, magnetic reversal, solar EMP, I could go on for days naming things that are dangerous and impossible to control. The universe on any level can be a dangerous place to live.