The future won't cooperate with my predictions

It seems that the future will not cooperate with the predictions of anybody, including myself. It would be nice if I could project what happens now to understand what will happen, but the biggest problem is that new invention and new information , by its very nature, cannot be factored into the process. It is easy enough to predict things that do not have possible outside influences, however, technology is influenced by almost everything.

The result of new abilities can be judged once they are known, tested and characterized, but they have no guarantee to maintain the status quo, in fact, they almost guarantee a change in the normal mode of doing business. How many people will buy a VHS or BETA video tape? The advent of SSDs will be a real game changer for people in the rotating storage business. If they had a bit of sense they would quickly encompass CAM and implement it in SATA, IDE, and USB to continue their point of contact. I doubt they are that nimble and will probably just die a slow death.

It seems that markets are learning the lessons of genetics, and the many large corporations that keep their position by limiting and controlling the growth of new ideas ( or assuming that things will remain the same ) are being eaten alive.

Even the idea that old money can tighten its grip on economies by forcing periods of economic weakness, seems to be failing to have the desired result. It must drive fear from the weakness and perhaps people have gotten wise to that. Once you have placed somebody in immediate fear, it is easier to simply collect everything at pennies on the dollar and start again. That also assumes that what is bought has some real long term value and I am not so sure that is even true.

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